NIGERIA HAS BEEN WARNED ABOUT EL NIÑO. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?_ BY KAREEM ABAYOMI

To be forewarned, they say, is to be forearmed. However, a warning is only useful when it changes what people do before danger arrives. Nigeria has now been warned about the developing El Niño phenomenon, which could influence temperatures and rainfall patterns, with possible consequences for agriculture, water supplies, public health and food prices. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has urged Nigerians to prepare. But beyond the advisory, a more pressing question remains: what will preparedness look like in practice?

El Niño begins thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean, where changes in sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across the world. Its effects vary from region to region, from one country to another. Some regions may experience reduced rainfall, others unusual rainfall or flooding, while temperatures may rise in certain areas. Nigeria must therefore resist the temptation to treat the forecast as a prediction that every part of the country will face the same disaster. What matters is understanding the risks in each location and acting accordingly.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has reported the development of a strong El Niño event in 2026. NEMA has subsequently issued safety advice covering extreme heat, water conservation, food security and community preparedness. These warnings deserve public attention. Yet issuing an advisory is only one part of disaster preparedness. The harder task is ensuring that the information reaches the people who need it and gives them a practical way to respond.

Consider the farmer whose livelihood depends on seasonal rainfall. Knowing that El Niño may alter weather patterns is not enough. The farmer needs timely, localised advice about planting dates, expected dry spells and suitable farming practices. A general warning cannot tell every farmer what to plant or when to plant it. That requires climate information that results in practical agricultural guidance, delivered in languages farmers understand and early enough to help them make informed decisions.

The same principle applies to food security. If weather disruptions affect agricultural production in some areas, households may face additional pressure from food prices. But El Niño should not become a cheap reason for every increase in the cost of food. Transport expenses, insecurity, storage difficulties and other market conditions also matter. Public authorities should monitor emerging risks, support agricultural resilience and communicate clearly about the factors affecting food supply. Preparation must be grounded in evidence, not speculation.

There is also a human cost to extreme heat that deserves more attention. For someone working in an air-conditioned office, staying indoors during the hottest hours may be manageable. For a roadside trader, construction worker, farmer or commercial motorcyclist, avoiding the sun may mean losing income. Advising people to limit exposure is sensible, but advice alone cannot remove the pressures that keep people outdoors. They must meet their basic needs and their workspace is outdoor. Public health communication must therefore be accompanied by practical measures that consider the realities of work, housing, water access and vulnerable communities.

Government issuing warnings is not enough to judge how adequate they are preparing the citizens for the impending danger. Are state governments and local authorities identifying communities most exposed to heat, drought or flooding? Are emergency services prepared to respond? Can residents obtain reliable information without depending on social media rumours? Are health facilities, schools and agricultural extension services receiving guidance relevant to their responsibilities? And can public agencies explain what they have done, what they are yet to do and where citizens should seek help?

These are not demands that government should prevent a natural hazard. No country can control the Pacific Ocean or guarantee that a forecast will unfold exactly as predicted. The responsibility is to reduce avoidable harm by using available evidence, coordinating institutions and preparing people before an emergency becomes a crisis.

Citizens also have a role. Households can follow credible weather updates, conserve water, take sensible precautions against heat and pay attention to local emergency instructions. Communities can share verified information and look out for children, older people and those who may need assistance. However, individual responsibility should not become an excuse for institutional inaction. People can prepare more effectively when they receive timely information and have the means to act on it.

El Niño may not affect every Nigerian in the same way, and the precise consequences will depend on regional conditions. That uncertainty is a reason to plan carefully, not to panic or dismiss the warning.

Nigeria has been alerted to a potential climate risk. The next test is whether that warning becomes useful information, coordinated preparation and visible action. When the danger is uncertain but the stakes are high, waiting for certainty before preparing is a gamble the country should not take.

© KAREEM ABAYOMI

-Nigeria 

ABOUT THE WRITER

Kareem Abayomi Adio is an indigene of Imeko, in Imeko-Afon Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. He received his early education in his hometown.

Kareem is currently a 400-level English Education student at Lagos State University (LASU), Ojo, Lagos. He is a passionate writer, technology enthusiast, and innovator with a keen interest in storytelling.